The Arctic again captured public attention as Donald Trump reiterated his interest in acquiring Greenland. While Trump referenced national security concerns, many observers believe that the region’s extensive mineral resources are the primary draw. However, economic development in other parts of the expansive polar region has reached a standstill.
During this season, Norwegian fisherman Sondre Alnes-Bonesmo faces challenging working conditions in the Arctic Ocean.
The sun last appeared at the end of October, with its next expected sighting not scheduled until mid-February.
Alongside the pervasive darkness, temperatures can drop below minus 40 degrees Celsius, while storms can generate enormous waves.
At the age of 30, Mr. Alnes-Bonesmo undertakes two six-hour shifts daily while on five-week assignments aboard the vessel known as Granit. A significant factory trawler operates continuously in the frigid Arctic waters north of Norway and along the coast of Greenland, remaining active even during the winter months.
It comes as no surprise that he favours the perpetual brightness of summer days. “I appreciate pleasant weather, as it spares us from the jarring impacts against the walls that occur during storms when the waves can reach considerable heights,” he remarks with a hint of understatement.
Mr Alnes-Bonesmo is involved in the Arctic “cold rush.”
The phenomenon, reminiscent of a gold rush, gained momentum around 2008 following a series of reports that revealed extensive mineral and hydrocarbon reserves throughout the Arctic region. Reserves, along with substantial fishing stocks, may become increasingly accessible as climate change leads to a reduction in ice levels.
The decline in ice coverage has progressively facilitated access to Arctic sea routes, mainly north of the Canadian mainland and Russia.
In a striking development, the total recorded annual distances sailed by ships in the Arctic Sea surged from 6.1 million miles to 12.9 million miles over the decade spanning 2013 to 2023, more than doubling in that period.
From a forward-looking perspective, cargo ships may soon navigate from Asia to Europe and the eastern United States via the Arctic waters above Canada and Russia.
Mr Alnes-Bonesmo now ponders a critical question: did he arrive too late?
In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the anticipated economic development in the Arctic region faced significant setbacks as tensions between Russia and Western nations escalated.
“Russia had ambitious plans in the Arctic,” states Morten Mejlaender-Larsen, the Arctic operation and technology director at the Norwegian company DNV. The company establishes regulations and benchmarks for the maritime industry.
Construction has commenced on regional rescue centres equipped with ships and helicopters. These facilities aim to support destination shipping for gas, oil, and coal projects in Siberia and facilitate shipping along the Northeast Passage, located north of Russia.
Mr. Mejlaender-Larsen notes that following the invasion of Ukraine, international shipping in the Northeast passage has nearly ceased, with only a handful of Chinese vessels remaining active.
He notes that Norway has also suspended oil and gas exploration activities. “It has come to a complete halt,” he states.
“No further developments are anticipated in the Barents Sea north of Bear Island.” Located approximately 400 kilometres (250 miles) north of the Norwegian mainland, this small island offers a unique glimpse into the region’s geography.
Norway’s decision to reduce its ambitions in the Arctic has garnered approval from environmentalists, who have long cautioned about the detrimental effects of hydrocarbon drilling on wildlife and the delicate ecosystem of the polar region.
In a significant development, Greenpeace expressed approval last month regarding the Norwegian government’s choice to halt the initial licensing phase for deep sea mining in the Arctic waters between the Svalbard and Jan Mayen islands.
Experts suggest that Norway’s strained relations with Russia significantly influenced Norway’s reluctance to invest in Arctic projects. However, the country’s enthusiasm for the polar region had begun to wane before this geopolitical tension.
Helene Tofte, the director of international cooperation and climate at the Norwegian Shipowners Association, stated that the previous outlook for shipping in the Arctic was, upon reflection, “exaggerated.”
She highlights that, despite the effects of climate change, the Arctic continues to present significant challenges for operations. “The Arctic presents formidable challenges, particularly when the lack of sea ice permits navigation,” she states.
Significant sections of the route remain distant from essential emergency response capabilities, including search and rescue operations and environmental cleanup resources.
“The prospect of increased shipping in this region raises significant concerns regarding the need for substantial investments. These would encompass ships, emergency preparedness measures, infrastructure enhancements, and advanced weather forecasting systems, all for a route characterized by unpredictability and a limited operational season.” Currently, no evidence suggests that our members perceive this as commercially viable.
Mr. Mejlaender-Larsen highlights a prevailing notion that global warming will lead to warmer summers in that region. Such an outcome is improbable. Even with a rise of 3 degrees Celsius from a frigid minus 40, the temperature remains far from warm.
Additionally, Professor Arild Moe of the Norwegian research group Fridtjof Nansen Institute asserts that the entire cold rush in the Arctic was founded on inflated assumptions. “The level of exuberance observed was deemed excessive,” states the region’s expert on oil and gas exploration.
“The reports from 2008 did not reference actual reserves; instead, they pointed to potential resources that are highly uncertain. These resources pose significant risks, are costly, and present challenges in terms of location and exploitation.”
In response to Donald Trump’s renewed interest in Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, officials from both Greenland and Denmark swiftly reiterated that the territory is not for sale.
Professor Moe asserts that Trump’s “crude and undiplomatic statement” indicates that the United States, under Trump’s leadership, is focused on both security and economic interests in the island, particularly its “rich mineral resources.”
The Danish government has announced a significant boost in Greenland’s defence spending in response to recent developments.
In a significant move, Trump is anticipated to permit expanded oil and gas exploration in Alaska, particularly within the resource-abundant Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
The vast 19 million-acre area is the largest wildlife refuge in the United States. In a controversial move in 2020, former President Trump approved drilling in a portion of this pristine landscape.
On the north coast of Nunavut, Canada is advancing the construction of a deep-water port at Grays Bay, marking a significant development in its most northern territory. Grays Bay is roughly at the heart of the Northwest Passage, the Arctic maritime route north of the Canadian mainland.
Onboard the Granit fishing vessel, Mr. Alnes-Bonesmo reflects on his financial success, noting that fishing quotas consistently decrease to protect fish stocks in the Norwegian Arctic waters.
Despite the circumstances, he maintains a philosophical outlook. “Having spent several years navigating the Arctic Ocean, my feelings have evolved; I find myself increasingly apprehensive about its vastness, yet simultaneously, I have developed a profound respect and appreciation for its formidable power and stunning beauty.”
