Reports indicate that Syrian rebel forces have made their way into Damascus, coinciding with claims that President Bashar al-Assad has departed the country following 13 years of civil conflict.
Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali has expressed his commitment to ensuring the continuity of governance in the nation.
Just 12 days following a significant offensive initiated by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allied factions in the northwest, the situation continues to evolve.
The rebels initially seized control of Aleppo, the second city, before advancing south along the highway towards the capital, coinciding with the disintegration of the Syrian military.
The conflict in Syria has complex roots, stemming from a combination of political, social, and economic factors. It began in 2011 when protests against the government escalated into a full-blown civil war, drawing in various factions and international interests. The situation has led to widespread devastation and a humanitarian crisis, with millions displaced and countless lives lost.
What began as a peaceful, pro-democracy uprising against Assad in 2011 has escalated into a full-scale civil war, resulting in widespread devastation across the country and attracting the involvement of regional and global powers.
Over 500,000 individuals have lost their lives, while 12 million have been displaced from their homes, with approximately five million seeking refuge or asylum in other countries.
Before the recent offensive by the rebels, the conflict appeared to be nearing its conclusion, as Assad’s government had successfully reclaimed control over the majority of Syria’s urban centres, aided by Russia, Iran, and Iranian-supported militias. The front lines had remained mainly static during this period.
Nevertheless, significant areas of the nation remained beyond the government’s authority. The regions in question encompass northern and eastern territories governed by a Kurdish-led coalition of armed factions known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which receives backing from the United States.
The final bastion of the rebels was located in the provinces of Aleppo and Idlib, adjacent to Turkey, where over four million individuals resided, a significant number of whom were displaced persons.
The enclave was primarily under the control of HTS, yet it also hosted several allied rebel factions and jihadist groups. The Syrian National Army (SNA), comprised of Turkish-backed rebel factions, maintained control over the territory with the assistance of Turkish military forces.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is a militant group operating primarily in Syria. It emerged from the merger of several factions and has been involved in the ongoing conflict in the region. Various countries have designated the group a terrorist organisation, and it is known for its significant influence in the northwest of Syria.
The militant organisation, originally established in 2012 as the al-Nusra Front declared its allegiance to al-Qaeda in the subsequent year.
The Al-Nusra Front has been recognised as one of the most formidable and lethal factions opposing President Assad. The jihadist ideology served as the primary motivator, overshadowing any revolutionary fervour, and was perceived as conflicting with the principal rebel coalition, the Free Syrian Army, during that period.
In 2016, Al-Nusra severed its connections with al-Qaeda and subsequently adopted the name Hayat Tahrir al-Sham following a merger with other factions a year later.
Despite ongoing developments, the United Nations, the United States, the United Kingdom, and several other nations maintain their classification of HTS as an affiliate of al-Qaeda, often referring to it by its former name, al-Nusra Front. The United States has officially designated Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, the leader of the group, as a global terrorist. In conjunction with this designation, a reward of $10 million has been announced for information that could lead to his capture.
HTS has solidified its dominance in the provinces of Idlib and Aleppo by decisively defeating its competitors, which include factions linked to al-Qaeda and cells associated with the Islamic State (IS) group. The establishment of the Syrian Salvation Government aims to oversee the region by Islamic law.
In a CNN interview on Friday, Jawlani articulated that “the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime.” He further intended to establish a government grounded in institutions and a “council chosen by the people.”
The rebels initiated an offensive, raising questions about their motivations and strategic objectives.
For several years, Idlib has been a focal point of conflict, with Syrian government forces making efforts to reclaim control over the region.
In 2020, a ceasefire was brokered by Turkey and Russia to put an end to the government’s efforts to reclaim Idlib. Despite instances of sporadic fighting, the ceasefire has largely remained intact.
On November 27, HTS and its allies announced the initiation of an offensive aimed at “deterring aggression.” They accused the government and Iran-backed militias of intensifying attacks on civilians in the northwest region.
The timing was critical, as the government weakened after enduring years of war, sanctions, and corruption while its allies were distracted by other ongoing conflicts.
The Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah, instrumental in repelling rebels during the initial phases of the conflict, has recently faced setbacks due to Israel’s military actions in Lebanon. Israeli airstrikes have reportedly targeted and eliminated Iranian military commanders operating in Syria while also disrupting supply lines to pro-government militias in the region. Russia has been preoccupied with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
In the absence of their support, Assad’s forces found themselves vulnerable.
What developments have occurred on the ground?
On November 30, the HTS-led rebels seized control of the majority of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, just three days following the initiation of their unexpected offensive. According to reports, minimal opposition was encountered following the swift withdrawal of government troops and security forces.
Assad has pledged to defeat the rebels decisively, relying on the support of his allies. Russian warplanes have ramped up their bombardments on regions controlled by insurgents. At the same time, Iran-backed militias have dispatched additional forces to strengthen the military’s defensive positions near Hama, the next city south along the Aleppo-Damascus highway.
On Thursday, Hama succumbed to rebel forces following several days of intense combat, which ultimately led to a military withdrawal.
In a swift move, the rebels announced their intention to capture Homs, Syria’s third-largest city, accomplishing this objective on Saturday night after just one day of intense fighting.
Simultaneously, various rebel factions operating in the southwestern region of the country, adjacent to Jordan, advanced to the outskirts of Damascus following their swift capture of the cities of Deraa and Suweida in just 24 hours.
In the early hours of Sunday, rebels affiliated with HTS declared their entry into Damascus. They reported the release of detainees from Saydanaya, the country’s infamous military prison, known for the execution of thousands of opposition supporters throughout the civil war.
In a dramatic turn of events, officials announced less than two hours later: “The tyrant Bashar al-Assad has fled.”
“Following five decades of oppression under Baath rule, coupled with 13 years marked by crimes, tyranny, and forced displacement, we declare today the conclusion of this dark chapter and the beginning of a new era for Syria,” they stated.
According to senior army officers, the president departed from the capital for an undisclosed location just before the rebels’ arrival.
In a recent video announcement, Mohammed al-Jalali, the Prime Minister of Assad’s government, expressed his willingness to collaborate with any leadership the Syrian populace selects.
Jawlani instructed his forces to avoid approaching official institutions, asserting that these entities would remain under the prime minister’s authority until an “official” transfer occurred.
What has been the response of global and regional powers?
The White House announced that US President Joe Biden and his administration are “closely monitoring the extraordinary events in Syria and maintaining constant communication with regional partners.”
