According to the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Milton was headed for Florida’s central west coast Wednesday morning as a powerful Category 4 hurricane on the verge of becoming a Category 5 storm as it ripped over the Gulf of Mexico. As of this now, landfall is anticipated early on Thursday.
Just one mile below the Category 5 threshold, Milton’s sustained wind speeds dropped to 155 mph before 8 a.m. Eastern Time. It is significantly less than the 160 mph recorded on Wednesday when forecasters called it a “catastrophic” storm.
According to the Tampa Bay National Weather Service, Milton was “a historic storm for the west coast of Florida” and could be the worst to strike Tampa Bay in almost a century.
When will Hurricane Milton hit the coast?
The most recent projected track indicates that Milton will land over or close to Sarasota, Florida, after about two in the morning ET. Milton is predicted to be a low-end Category 4 storm at that time, meaning its winds would be in the 130–156 mph area, according to Nolan.
At around five a.m. on Thursday, Milton was tracking in Sarasota Bay, just off the coast of Florida, according to forecasts that were revised by the hurricane center on Wednesday. By then, they said, its sustained winds would be about 130 mph.
The hurricane center did, however, issue a warning against paying too much attention to specific prediction specifics, such as the precise landfall position.
Although more current models indicate that Milton would arrive near Sarasota, early forecasts suggested that Milton might land in Tampa Bay, which would be very concerning for a city susceptible to storm surge and not directly hit by a hurricane in at least a century.
The storm center said users are urged not to focus on the exact landfall point, as the average error at 24 hours is about 40 miles.
Following landfall, Milton will remain a hurricane when it exits into the Atlantic Ocean and swiftly turns into a tropical storm on Thursday afternoon, but it will rapidly weaken after losing the fuel of the warm Gulf waters.
Warnings for hurricanes and storm surges
Florida’s east coast, from the St. Lucie-Martin County border north to Ponte Vedra Beach, and the state’s west coast, from Bonita Beach north to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay, was under a hurricane warning.
Florida’s west coast is particularly vulnerable to storm surge hazards. Hurricane and storm surge advisories were in force from Flamingo north to Yankeetown, encompassing Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbour.
Georgia’s Altamaha Sound, which includes the St. Johns River, and Florida’s east coast, from the Sebastian Inlet in Florida, were also under a storm surge warning.
Several regions, including parts of Georgia, South Carolina, and the Bahamas, were also under tropical storm watches and warnings.
The National Weather Service said that if you are in the Storm Surge Warning area, this is a highly life-threatening situation, and you should evacuate if local officials order you to do so.
Forecasts for peak surges before Hurricane Milton’s anticipated arrival: the National Hurricane Center and NOAA.
The hurricane center said that storm surge in the Tampa Bay region may be 8 to 10 feet above the ground. Earlier estimates said Tampa may see surges of up to 15 feet, but that prediction was lower. Forecasters’ estimations of storm surge moved southward along with their landfall forecasts.
Peak surges of 10 to 15 feet, or about as high as or slightly higher than a one-story structure, were predicted for a portion of Florida’s west coast as of Wednesday morning, extending from Anna Maria Island down to Boca Grande, including Sarasota.
In a Monday afternoon alert, the hurricane center said the surge would be accompanied by large and dangerous waves along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the deepest water would occur.
Due to forecasts of heavy rainfall, the Florida peninsula may see “considerable flash, urban and area flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding” through Thursday. The rainfall may reach up to 18 inches in some places.
Tampa Bay is ready for the landfall.
Highways were congested with mass evacuations as people prepared for Milton’s possibly historic effect. Less than two weeks ago, several towns, such as those in and around the Tampa Bay region, were still in shock from Hurricane Helene.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said at a briefing on Tuesday, I believe the most recent models have it somewhere in Manatee County, just south of Tampa Bay. But tell people, one, we’re going to have impacts far beyond wherever the eye of the storm is.
He said the impacts will be broader, specifically concerning storm surges.
