During a recent interview, Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed optimism regarding India’s relationship with its long-time rival, China. He stated that normalcy has been restored along the contentious India-China border and emphasised the need for enhanced relations.
The remarks are particularly noteworthy, given the heightened tensions that have persisted since a violent border clash in the northern Ladakh region in 2020, which marked the deadliest confrontation since the 1962 war.
Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning acknowledged Modi’s remarks, stating, “The two countries should be partners that contribute to each other’s success.”
Modi’s call for a closer partnership may not be as significant a shift as it appears, particularly in light of the recent advancements in bilateral relations. The relationship continues to be tense, and significant developments will be required on both bilateral and broader geopolitical fronts for a genuine rapprochement.
The relationship between India and China showcases several positive aspects.
Bilateral trade remains strong, with China continuing to be India’s leading trade partner despite the tensions following the Ladakh clash. Their collaboration spans multiple platforms, including BRICS, the coalition of significant developing nations, and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Their shared interests include promoting non-Western economic models, combating Islamist terrorism, and opposing what they consider to be US moral crusading.
Despite the Ladakh clash plunging relations to their lowest point in decades, both militaries maintained high-level discussions, culminating in an agreement in October to restart border patrols. During a recent BRICS summit held in Russia, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi engaged in discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping, where both leaders committed to enhancing their cooperative efforts. In January, both parties reached an agreement to restart direct flights.
The relationship continues to face significant challenges.
Both nations maintain strong security alliances with their rivals: India aligns closely with the United States, while China fosters ties with Pakistan.
China has expressed its opposition to India’s policies regarding the contentious Kashmir region. Beijing poses a significant challenge to India’s aspirations for greater global influence by obstructing its entry into key international organisations, including the Nuclear Suppliers Group and the permanent seat on the UN Security Council.
China maintains a significant naval presence, with its sole overseas military base in India’s expansive maritime region.
Delhi has firmly rejected the Belt and Road Initiative, which serves as a connectivity corridor that has allowed Beijing to extend its influence in the region, citing its passage through territory claimed by India.
In a significant development, India is strengthening its relationship with Taiwan, a territory China considers a breakaway province. The Dalai Lama, the exiled leader of Tibet, is hosted here. Beijing views him as a significant threat due to his separatist tendencies.
India is currently discussing the sale of supersonic missiles to various Southeast Asian nations, a move that may counteract Chinese provocations in the South China Sea. China perceives various international platforms that India participates in, including the Indo-Pacific Quad and the Middle East Europe Economic Corridor, as efforts aimed at undermining its influence.
Several indicators can provide insight into the future trajectory of the relationship.
Discussions regarding the border are underway. Fifty thousand square miles of the 2,100-mile (3,380 km) long frontier—an expanse comparable to the size of Greece—continue to be a matter of contention.
The current state of affairs at the border is a crucial indicator of the overall relationship. The clash in Ladakh significantly undermined trust, while the patrolling agreement established last year played a crucial role in rebuilding it. The potential for improved relations hinges on the ability of both sides to implement additional confidence-building measures.
Future high-level engagement remains crucial. The potential meeting between Modi and Xi, both known for their emphasis on personal diplomacy, could significantly enhance the recent progress in their bilateral relations. Opportunities will arise on the sidelines of key leaders’ summits, including Brics in July, G20 in November, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) later this year.
Chinese investment emerges as a pivotal indicator, poised to inject essential capital into vital Indian sectors ranging from manufacturing to renewable energy. This influx could significantly alleviate India’s substantial trade deficit with China of $85 billion (£65.7 billion).
The proposed rise in investments has the potential to provide India with a much-needed economic uplift while simultaneously granting China greater access to the world’s fastest-growing major economy. Enhanced commercial cooperation could offer more significant incentives to mitigate broader tensions.
It is essential to keep an eye on both regional and global developments.
In a significant political shift, four of India’s neighbouring countries—Bangladesh, the Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka—have recently welcomed new leaders who exhibit a stronger alignment with China than their predecessors. However, up to this point, they have aimed to maintain a balanced relationship with both Beijing and Delhi rather than aligning themselves with China.
Should this trend persist, Delhi’s apprehensions regarding Beijing’s sway in India’s surrounding regions may diminish somewhat. Furthermore, should China reconsider its expanding alliance with Russia, a scenario that appears more plausible with a potential resolution to the conflict in Ukraine—an event that has intensified Moscow’s reliance on Beijing—this development could positively influence relations between India and China.
The influence of Trump remains significant.
While imposing tariffs on China, US President Donald Trump has indicated a willingness to reduce tensions with Beijing.
Should he proceed, and with Delhi concerned that Washington’s commitment to assisting India in countering China may wane, India would likely seek to strengthen its relationship with China.
Furthermore, should Trump’s forthcoming reciprocal tariff policy significantly impact India—considering the 10% average tariff differences between the US and India, such an outcome is plausible—India may find additional motivation to bolster its commercial ties with Beijing.
India and China stand as Asia’s two most significant nations, each asserting its identity as a proud civilisation state.
Their competitive nature is evident. Recent positive developments in diplomatic ties and the potential for progress on various fronts may contribute to more excellent stability in the relationship. This could indicate that Modi’s conciliatory language is not simply rhetorical.
