India is contemplating a significant escalation in the volume of water it extracts from a key river that supplies agricultural lands in Pakistan, a move seen as a response to a fatal attack on tourists in April, which New Delhi attributes to Islamabad, according to four sources with knowledge of the situation.
Delhi has suspended its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, which regulates the use of the Indus River system. This decision follows the tragic killing of 26 civilians in Indian Kashmir, an incident that India has labelled as an act of terror. Pakistan has refuted any connection to the incident; however, the agreement remains unrenewed even after the two nuclear-capable neighbours reached a ceasefire last week, following the most intense clashes between them in decades.
Following the suspension of India’s involvement in the treaty, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi directed officials to accelerate the planning and implementation of projects concerning the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus rivers. These three waterways, part of the Indus system, are primarily allocated for Pakistan’s use, according to six sources who spoke to True Story News.
Discussions are underway regarding a significant proposal to extend the Ranbir canal on the Chenab from its current length to 120 kilometres. According to two sources familiar with the matter, this canal, which traverses from India into Pakistan’s agricultural hub of Punjab, is at the centre of these talks. The canal’s construction took place in the 19th century, predating the signing of the treaty by several years.
India has been granted permission to extract a restricted volume of water from the Chenab River for irrigation purposes. However, the proposed expansion of a canal, which experts estimate could take several years to complete, would enable the diversion of 150 cubic meters of water per second, a significant increase from the current rate of approximately 40 cubic meters. This information comes from four sources that referenced official discussions and documents they reviewed.
Prior reports have not covered the Indian government’s discussions regarding the expansion of Ranbir. According to one source, discussions commenced last month and have persisted even following the ceasefire.
Efforts to obtain comments from the Indian ministries overseeing water and foreign affairs, along with the office of Prime Minister Modi, were met with silence from Reuters. The Indian hydropower company NHPC, known for its operations within the Indus system, has yet to respond to an email requesting comment.
In a passionate address this week, Modi asserted that “water and blood cannot flow together,” although he made no mention of the treaty in question. During a media event on Friday, Water Minister CR Paatil stated that his ministry would adhere to Prime Minister Modi’s directives and strive to guarantee that “not a drop of water goes out.”
Requests for comment from Pakistan’s water and foreign ministries went unanswered. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar informed lawmakers this week that the government has communicated with India, asserting that the suspension of the treaty is unlawful and that Islamabad considers it to be still in effect.
Islamabad responded following India’s suspension of the treaty in April, stating that it views “any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan” as a “act of war.”
Approximately 80 percent of farms in Pakistan rely on the Indus system, which also supports nearly all hydropower projects catering to the nation’s 250 million people.
According to water security expert David Michel from the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Delhi’s initiatives to construct dams, canals, or other infrastructure to withhold or redirect a substantial flow from the Indus system to India “would take years to realise.”
Pakistan has experienced a glimpse of the potential pressure it may encounter from India, as water levels at a crucial receiving point in the country plummeted by nearly 90 per cent in early May, following India’s commencement of maintenance work on several Indus projects.
Success Under Siege
The Indus system traverses regions marked by significant geopolitical tensions. It begins near Lake Mansarovar in Tibet and winds its way through northern India and eastern and southeastern Pakistan, ultimately flowing into the Arabian Sea.
The treaty is regarded as one of the most effective water-sharing agreements globally, having endured multiple significant conflicts and hostilities between India and Pakistan.
Islamabad has a history of opposing various Indian initiatives within the Indus system. In response to the Kashmir attack, Delhi has stated that it has been seeking to renegotiate the treaty since 2023, citing population growth and an increasing demand for clean hydroenergy.
The treaty confines India primarily to establishing low-impact hydropower projects on the three rivers designated for Pakistan. Delhi is granted the autonomy to manage the waters of three additional rivers—the Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi tributaries—according to its own discretion.
In addition to the proposed expansion of the Ranbir canal, India is reportedly evaluating initiatives that could potentially diminish the water flow into Pakistan from rivers designated for that nation, as indicated by two government documents reviewed by Reuters and discussions with five sources knowledgeable about the situation.
A recently surfaced document, an undated note crafted by a government entity, outlines considerations for irrigation plans. It indicates that water from the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum rivers could potentially be allocated to rivers in three northern Indian states.
A source revealed that the document, details of which have not been disclosed before, was prepared for talks with officials from the power ministry following the attack on April 22.
The government of Delhi has compiled a list of hydropower projects in the Jammu and Kashmir region, aiming to increase capacity from the current 3,360 megawatts to an ambitious 12,000 megawatts.
A list prepared by the power ministry and reviewed by Reuters lacks a date. An individual with knowledge of the document indicated that it was produced prior to the Kashmir incident, yet it remains a topic of active discussion among government officials.
According to two sources familiar with the situation, the potential projects encompass dams capable of holding significant amounts of water, marking a first for India within the Indus river system.
According to a document from the power ministry, India has pinpointed at least five potential storage projects, four of which are located on the tributaries of the Chenab and Jhelum rivers.
Political manoeuvring
The Himalayan region of Kashmir remains a contentious territory, with both India and Pakistan asserting claims, yet each governing only portions of the area.
For decades, the region has been plagued by an anti-India insurgency, with Delhi alleging that Islamabad has been instrumental in its support and financing. Pakistan has denied the charges.
Happymon Jacob, an international relations expert at Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University, stated that India’s renewed emphasis on the Indus Waters Treaty signifies an effort to exert pressure on Pakistan regarding the Kashmir issue.
“In light of the recent conflict, Delhi might decline to engage in any discussions regarding Kashmir with Pakistan,” he stated. Delhi has increasingly limited the scope of bilateral discussions, narrowing the agenda to concentrate solely on particular issues such as the IWT.
Pakistan has announced its intention to pursue legal action on multiple international platforms, including the World Bank, which played a role in facilitating the treaty, the Permanent Court of Arbitration, and the International Court of Justice in The Hague.
“Water should not be weaponised,” stated Pakistan’s Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb in an interview with Reuters on Monday. “The possibility of any scenario that overlooks the reinstatement of this treaty is not something we are willing to entertain.”
Michel, an expert based in the United States, indicated that worries about the treaty’s suspension extended beyond Islamabad.
“With the intensifying geopolitical rivalry in the region, several Indian analysts express concern that Delhi’s approach to utilising water resources against Islamabad may inadvertently provide Beijing with the justification to implement a similar tactic against India,” he stated.
