A recent survey reveals that Indian Americans are growing more optimistic about the future of India. However, they express significant apprehensions regarding US-India relations should Donald Trump secure a second term in office.
In October, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, in collaboration with YouGov, conducted the 2024 Indian-American Survey, which explored the political attitudes of the Indian-American community.
Last year, two significant elections took place in India and the United States, set against the backdrop of a partnership that has grown deeper, albeit with moments of tension. Tensions escalated between the nations following a federal indictment of Indian billionaire Gautam Adani in the United States, alongside allegations of a Delhi-supported assassination plot occurring on American territory.
The survey, which included over five million Indian-origin residents in the United States, posed several critical questions. What is the perspective of Indian Americans on former President Joe Biden‘s approach to US-India relations? Is Donald Trump perceived as a more favourable choice? What methods are used to evaluate India’s direction following the 2024 election?
The report highlights several significant findings from a nationally representative online survey of 1,206 Indian-American adult residents.
Indian Americans expressed a more positive assessment of the Biden administration’s approach to US-India relations than the evaluations of Trump’s initial term in office.
Polling indicated that a potential Kamala Harris administration was perceived as more favourable for bilateral relations than a second term for Donald Trump.
Partisan polarization is a significant factor at play. A substantial 66% of Indian-American Republicans express the view that Trump positively impacted US-India relations, in stark contrast to only 8% of Democrats who share this sentiment.
In a striking contrast, 50% of Indian-American Democrats express support for Biden, while only 15% of their Republican counterparts share the same sentiment.
The predominance of Indian Americans aligning with the Democratic Party appears to give President Biden a significant advantage.
In a February meeting held at the White House, former President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi exchanged compliments regarding their leadership styles. However, Trump did not hesitate to address concerns over India’s elevated trade tariffs, labelling them as a significant issue.
A recent survey reveals that the purported Indian scheme to assassinate a separatist on American territory has not gained significant public attention, with only 50% of respondents indicating awareness of the situation.
In October, a former Indian intelligence officer was charged in the United States with attempted murder and money laundering. The charges stem from allegations that the officer plotted to assassinate Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, an advocate for an independent Sikh state known as Khalistan, based in the US.
This incident represents a significant moment, as it is the first occasion on which the Indian government has been directly linked to an alleged assassination attempt targeting a dissident. India has announced its cooperation with the ongoing investigation led by the United States. In January, a panel established by India to investigate allegations from Washington suggested pursuing legal action against an unidentified individual thought to be a former intelligence agent.
A slim majority of those surveyed believed India would be “unjustified in taking such action and share the same sentiments regarding the US if the roles were reversed”.
Indian Americans are divided along party lines, with Democrats showing more empathy towards Palestinians, while Republicans tend to support Israel.
Forty per cent of those surveyed express the view that President Biden has demonstrated excessive support for Israel amid the current conflict.
In October 2023, an assault by Hamas fighters originating from Gaza resulted in the deaths of approximately 1,200 individuals, predominantly civilians, within Israel. The incident also led to the abduction of 251 people. The majority have been freed through ceasefire agreements or various other arrangements.
According to the health ministry operated by Hamas, Israel’s military offensive has resulted in the deaths of over 48,000 Palestinians in Gaza, with a significant number being women and children.
Negotiations to extend the tenuous ceasefire, which reached its initial deadline on March 1, are anticipated to recommence in Qatar on Monday.
Recent data reveals that 47% of Indian Americans believe India is progressing positively, marking a notable increase of 10 percentage points compared to four years prior.
A consistent proportion of the population expresses approval of Modi’s performance in his role as prime minister. Furthermore, 40% of respondents believe that the 2024 election in India, in which Modi’s party failed to secure a majority, has contributed to a more democratic landscape in the country.
A recent survey reveals that a significant number of Indian Americans express support for Prime Minister Modi and hold the view that India is progressing positively. However, it also highlights that approximately half of them are not informed about the purported assassination attempt that occurred on US soil.
Does this suggest a deficiency in information access, a pattern of selective engagement, or a propensity to disregard specific actions in favour of a broader nationalist sentiment?
“While pinpointing the exact cause remains challenging, our impression is that this phenomenon is largely influenced by selective engagement,” stated Milan Vaishnav, co-author of the study.
Research conducted by Carnegie in 2020 indicates that approximately 60% of Indian Americans consistently monitor Indian government and public affairs, while a notable segment engages with these topics only intermittently.
Individuals frequently develop sweeping perceptions influenced by news coverage, social media interactions, and conversations with friends and family. “In light of the recent surge of news coverage in the United States, it is perhaps understandable that the ‘murder-for-hire’ plot failed to capture the attention of a significant portion of the public,” Mr Vaishnav remarked.
Indian Americans exhibit a careful stance towards Trump, showing a general preference for Biden or Harris about US-India ties. However, their support for Modi in India remains robust. In light of Modi’s nationalist policies, what explains this divergence? Does it stem more from individual consequences rather than ideological beliefs?
“This situation exemplifies the notion that one’s perspective is shaped by their position,” Mr. Vaishnav stated.
In related research, he stated, “we’ve explored this question in depth and found that Indian Americans generally hold more liberal views on US policy issues compared to India.”
Muslim Indian-Americans, who are minorities in both India and the United States, tend to uphold more liberal attitudes consistently. In contrast, Hindu Indian-Americans exhibit liberal views. At the same time, in the US, they find themselves in the minority but adopt more conservative positions, and in India, they are part of the majority.
Mr Vaishnav stated that an individual’s status as a majority or minority significantly influences their political perspectives.
Despite concerns about Trump being a potential threat to bilateral relations, Indian Americans supported him significantly during his first term, notably at events such as ‘Howdy Modi!’. Is the shift in their opinion of Trump a result of his policies, or is it influenced more by the evolving political landscape?
It is essential to avoid broad generalizations based on a single event or even a specific segment of the Indian American community. Over 50,000 Indian Americans convened at the ‘Howdy, Modi!’ event to catch a glimpse of Modi rather than Trump. “It is important to note that Trump was included at a later date,” Mr. Vaishnav stated.
Furthermore, this community represents a wide array of political perspectives. Despite the strong inclination of Indian Americans towards the Democratic Party, a significant minority—estimated at around 30% in 2024—express support for the Republicans under Trump.
Indian Americans continue to show allegiance to the Democratic Party; however, their attachment appears to diminish. A recent survey revealed that 47% of respondents identify as Democrats, a notable decrease from 56% recorded in 2020.
Is the political perspective of Indian Americans shaped by a deep understanding of developments in both India and the United States, or are their opinions primarily swayed by narratives from the diaspora and the influence of media echo chambers?
According to Mr Vaishnav, data from 2020 indicates that online news emerged as the leading source of information regarding India, with television, social media, and word of mouth following closely behind. YouTube, Facebook, and WhatsApp emerged as the predominant platforms within social media.
Engagement with India appears somewhat restricted, as foreign-born Indian Americans tend to participate more actively than their counterparts born in the United States.
“It is important to recognize that the ties of cultural connectivity continue to be robust, particularly among second and third-generation Indian Americans.”
The survey reveals a multifaceted image of the Indian American community, influenced by selective involvement, changing political dynamics, and diverse individual experiences.
