Kashmir, an ethnically diverse region in the Himalayas, is renowned for its stunning lakes, lush meadows, and majestic snow-capped mountains.
Before India and Pakistan’s independence from British rule in August 1947, the region was already a focal point of intense disputes.
The partition plan outlined in the Indian Independence Act allowed Muslim-majority Kashmir the option to accede to either India or Pakistan.
In October 1947, the local ruler of Kashmir, Maharaja Hari Singh, faced a critical decision regarding the future of his region. Initially inclined towards independence, he ultimately opted to join India, seeking assistance to counter an invasion by tribe members from Pakistan.
A conflict has broken out, prompting India to seek intervention from the United Nations. The United Nations has recommended a plebiscite to determine the state’s future, specifically its potential accession to India or Pakistan. Despite ongoing discussions, the two nations disagreed on demilitarising the region before the referendum.
In July 1949, India and Pakistan agreed to establish a ceasefire line following recommendations from the United Nations, resulting in the division of the region.
In 1965, a second conflict erupted. In 1999, India engaged in a short yet intense conflict with forces supported by Pakistan.
At that point, both India and Pakistan had officially established themselves as nuclear powers. Currently, both Delhi and Islamabad assert their claims over the entirety of Kashmir, yet they only govern portions of the region.
The recent surge in unrest within the Indian-administered region has raised significant questions about the underlying causes and implications of the ongoing tensions.
In Kashmir, the views regarding the territory’s rightful allegiance are varied and passionately expressed. Many individuals desire governance that does not involve India, favouring either independence or a union with Pakistan as alternatives.
One factor to consider is religion. In Jammu and Kashmir, Muslims constitute over 60% of the population, establishing it as the only region in India where they hold a majority status.
Since 1989, an armed uprising has been ongoing against Indian governance in the area, resulting in the loss of tens of thousands of lives.
India has levelled accusations against Pakistan, alleging that the latter supports militants operating in Kashmir. Pakistan, however, has firmly denied these claims.
In 2019, the government in Delhi revoked the semi-autonomous status of Indian-administered Kashmir, a move accompanied by a significant security crackdown.
In the years following the revocation of the region’s special status, militancy declined noticeably, while tourist visits increased significantly.
In the aftermath of previous militant attacks in Kashmir, a series of significant developments unfolded. Security forces intensified their regional operations, aiming to dismantle militant networks. The local population experienced heightened tensions, with increased military presence and curfews imposed in certain areas. Additionally, political leaders called for unity and resilience among the citizens, while international observers closely monitored the situation, raising concerns over human rights and regional stability.
In 2016, following the deaths of 19 Indian soldiers in Uri, India executed “surgical strikes” across the Line of Control, the de facto border with Pakistan, aimed at alleged militant bases.
In 2019, the Pulwama bombing resulted in the deaths of over 40 Indian paramilitary personnel, leading to Indian airstrikes deep into Balakot. This marked the first such military action inside Pakistan since 1971, igniting retaliatory raids and an aerial dogfight.
In April 2025, a resurgence of violence shattered years of relative tranquilly as militants launched a deadly attack on tourists in the vicinity of Pahalgam, a resort town in Indian-administered Kashmir, resulting in the tragic deaths of 26 individuals. The attack marked the most lethal assault on civilians in the past twenty years.
Two weeks later, India launched missile strikes on targets in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, heightening concerns over potential escalation and prompting renewed calls for restraint.
Kashmir continues to be recognised as one of the most heavily militarised regions globally.
What are the prospects for peace?
In 2003, India and Pakistan reached an agreement on a ceasefire.
In 2014, Narendra Modi ascended to Prime Minister of India, vowing to adopt a stringent approach towards Pakistan while simultaneously expressing a willingness to engage in peace negotiations.
In a notable diplomatic gesture, Nawaz Sharif, the prime minister of Pakistan at the time, attended Narendra Modi’s swearing-in ceremony in Delhi.
A year later, India attributed the attack on its airbase in Pathankot, located in the northern state of Punjab, to groups based in Pakistan. In 2017, Modi decided to cancel a planned visit to Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, for a regional summit.
Since then, discussions between the neighbouring parties have stalled, showing no signs of advancement.
