Vladimir Putin appears to be seizing the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran as a strategic opportunity to elevate his position on the global stage, following more than three years since the onset of his invasion of Ukraine.
Experts suggest that the Russian president has positioned himself as a potential mediator; however, concerns arise regarding the nature of his role due to Moscow’s strong ties with Iran and its ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the war in Gaza have put significant pressure on Moscow’s historically strong ties with Israel, which is home to a substantial Russian-born population.
Simultaneously, Russia has strengthened its military relationship with Iran.
Moscow swiftly condemned Israel’s strikes on Iran last Friday. Still, President Putin promptly reached out to both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, positioning himself as a potential peacemaker in the escalating tensions.
“Moscow seeks to re-establish its diplomatic significance by positioning itself as a crucial intermediary, even as it grapples with its pariah status in Europe,” stated Nicole Grajewski, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
The organization aims to safeguard its ally, Tehran, which is confronting a potentially existential military confrontation.
“Russia is opposed to any regime change in Iran, particularly if it leads to the establishment of a pro-Western government,” she stated.
In January, Moscow and Tehran formalized a comprehensive strategic partnership aimed at enhancing military collaboration. Meanwhile, Kyiv and its allies have consistently alleged that Iran has been providing Russia with drones and short-range missiles.
‘Lacking objectivity’
Russia is actively pursuing efforts to re-establish its influence in the Middle East in the wake of the decline of its ally, Bashar al-Assad, in Syria.
“The regime change in Syria resulted in a significant loss of territory,” stated Tatiana Kastoueva-Jean from the French Institute of International Relations.
Russia has utilized the region in the past to enhance its global influence.
Following the imposition of sanctions due to the annexation of Crimea, Russia has reportedly “emerged from international isolation” by “becoming indispensable in the region,” according to Kastoueva-Jean.
The support for Assad during the Syrian civil war and the endorsement of the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal are key points of focus.
Moscow’s significantly closer alliance with Tehran in the current context raises questions about its ability to serve as a trusted mediator.
Given Russia’s status as an ally of Iran and the existence of a strategic partnership agreement between the two nations, any mediation efforts are unlikely to instill confidence among European nations—” nor in Israel,” stated Russian political analyst Konstantin Kalachev in an interview with AFP.
“A mediator must maintain impartiality and avoid showing sympathy towards either party,” he emphasized.
French President Emmanuel Macron has been vocal in opposing the notion of Vladimir Putin serving as a mediator.
“I find it hard to accept that Russia, currently embroiled in a high-intensity conflict and having disregarded the UN Charter for several years, can serve as a mediator,” he stated over the weekend.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov addressed inquiries regarding the response to Moscow’s overtures, stating on Tuesday that there appears to be “a reluctance, on the part of Israel, to resort to any mediation services or to embark on a peaceful path towards a settlement.”
‘Support for Trump’
Donald Trump appears unfazed by the prospect of Russia’s involvement, expressing that he is “open” to the idea of Putin serving as a mediator.
The US President is advocating for a new approach to engage with Putin, marking a significant shift from the West’s strategy of isolating and penalizing him for the actions in Ukraine.
Putin appears poised to seize the chance to redirect discussions with the White House, particularly as Trump expresses mounting frustration regarding Russia’s persistent aggression towards Ukraine and the lack of progress in achieving a peace agreement.
“Russia is attempting to attract Trump’s attention on matters that extend beyond Ukraine,” stated Kastoueva-Jean.
Prior to Israel’s recent series of strikes on Iran, President Putin extended an offer to facilitate negotiations between Iran and the United States regarding Tehran’s nuclear program.
For numerous observers, the notion of Putin assuming the role of peacemaker over three years into his invasion of Ukraine raises significant concerns.
“It would legitimize Russia as an essential great power during a period when it is conducting the largest war of aggression on European soil since World War II,” stated Anna Borshchevskaya, an analyst at The Washington Institute.
