The Fordo site stands out as one of the most closely monitored locations in the world.
In 2009, Western intelligence agencies revealed the existence of a clandestine nuclear facility. As the implications of recent US strikes come to light, assessing the extent of the damage will be crucial in shaping the future trajectory of the conflict.
A recently leaked assessment from the Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) indicates that the fundamental elements of Iran’s nuclear program remain intact, with the recent strikes merely delaying Iran’s advancements by months instead of years.
However, this assessment is merely preliminary and categorized as “low confidence.” This designation arises from the fact that it is still early in the investigation into events occurring in a location intentionally shielded from scrutiny.
The Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) is the Pentagon’s dedicated military intelligence agency, providing crucial support for operations. The agency gathers extensive technical intelligence, setting itself apart from other organizations such as the CIA.
“Assessing the final battle damage will require some time,” stated General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, shortly after the incident. What implications arise from the destruction or damage of the program, and what methods can be employed to uncover this information?
Satellite imagery showcasing holes and dust provides limited insight into the actual events that transpired beneath the surface. There is no indication of significant subsidence or a potential cave-in of the mountain.
This suggests that despite the United States deploying several bombs, the Iranians employed sufficient reinforced concrete to prevent the explosives from penetrating the main hall and damaging the machinery within. This marks the inaugural operational deployment of these bombs, contributing to the prevailing uncertainty surrounding their use.
The centrifuge machines, known for their high-speed operation in uranium enrichment, are notably sensitive. Consequently, the explosion is expected to have caused significant damage, likely sending many of these machines spinning off their axis.
To gain a more comprehensive understanding of the damage, various forms of intelligence will be essential. This includes seismic detectors capable of analyzing the depth and magnitude of underground explosions, tools that can detect radiation—though
international inspectors report no findings thus far—and LIDAR technology, which utilizes laser pulses from aircraft or drones to create three-dimensional maps in an effort to explore the mountain’s interior.
Informants and intercepted communications are expected to play a crucial role, potentially uncovering discussions among Iranians regarding the damage and its broader implications. The ongoing updates will ensure that the final assessment is delivered with increased confidence.
While US officials have asserted that sites such as Fordo have sustained significant damage and are currently rendered unusable, this assertion does not equate to the conclusion of Iran’s broader nuclear program. This is due to its potential for reconstitution at new locations.
Just prior to the attack, a fleet of lorries was observed at Fordo, raising critical questions about their cargo and its subsequent whereabouts.
Reports suggest that Tehran has relocated its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to a different site. The mountain referred to as “pickaxe” has captured global interest, with reports suggesting that Iran may have relocated some of its centrifuges. However, these movements are likely insufficient to enable progress at the pace that could have been achieved prior to the attack.
Even with a sufficient quantity of highly enriched uranium, additional stages are necessary for the weaponization process and the development of a delivery system for a bomb. Such matters demand an exceptionally high degree of specialized scientific expertise. At the onset of the conflict, Israel undertook a significant operation targeting scientists associated with the program, aiming to extend the timeline of its developments.
The recent attack is expected to hinder Iran’s program significantly. However, to what extent? Determining an answer requires assessing what is left following the attacks, and it will inevitably be an estimation rather than a definitive number.
The implications of this situation suggest that intelligence agencies will intensify their efforts to comprehend Iran’s nuclear programme in the months ahead. If indications indicate that Tehran is covertly reviving its nuclear program or accelerating efforts toward weaponization, the potential for renewed conflict looms large.
