The recent four-day conflict between longstanding adversaries India and Pakistan concluded with a ceasefire, with both nations asserting their triumphs. However, emerging reports suggest that China’s defense industry may appear to be an unexpected beneficiary of the situation.
The recent escalation of tensions commenced on May 7, when India initiated strikes targeting what it described as “terrorist infrastructure” within Pakistan. This action followed the violent killing of 26 individuals, predominantly tourists, by militants in Pahalgam on April 22.
A tragic incident unfolded in the picturesque valley of Indian-administered Kashmir, where numerous individuals lost their lives before the eyes of their wives and family members. Delhi has levelled accusations against Islamabad, alleging that the latter supports militant groups implicated in the violence, a claim that Pakistan has firmly rejected.
In the wake of India’s Operation Sindoor, launched in response to a militant attack, both nations engaged in a series of reciprocal military actions. These manoeuvres included the deployment of drones, missiles, and fighter jets, escalating tensions in the region.
India has been reported to use its fleet of French and Russian-made jets, whereas Pakistan has opted for its J-10 and J-17 aircraft, the latter of which is produced in collaboration with Beijing. Each party asserts that its aircraft remained within its own airspace while engaging in missile exchanges from afar.
Islamabad asserts that its fighter aircraft successfully downed a minimum of six Indian planes, which reportedly include the recently acquired French-made Rafale fighter jets. The capital has yet to address these allegations.
“Losses are an inherent aspect of combat,” stated Air Marshal AK Bharti of the Indian Air Force (IAF) in response to a reporter’s inquiry regarding these assertions last week. Air Marshal Bharti refrained from addressing the particular allegation regarding Pakistan’s assertion of having downed Indian jets.
“We have successfully met the objectives we set out to achieve, and all our pilots have returned home,” he stated.
India has reported the elimination of at least 100 terrorists during operations aimed at the headquarters of the banned militant groups Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, which are located in Pakistan.
An authoritative narrative of the events that transpired during the aerial confrontation has yet to be revealed. Several media outlets have reported incidents of plane crashes occurring in the state of Punjab and Indian-administered Kashmir simultaneously; however, there has been no response from the Indian government regarding these reports.
A report from Reuters, citing American officials, indicated that Pakistan may have used the Chinese-made J-10 aircraft to fire air-to-air missiles at Indian fighter jets. Certain experts view Pakistan’s assertion of victory, heavily dependent on Chinese weapons systems during active combat, as a significant endorsement for Beijing’s defence industry. However, there are dissenting opinions regarding this claim.
Experts have dubbed this a “DeepSeek moment” for the Chinese weapons industry, alluding to the significant impact made in January when a Chinese AI start-up challenged US giants with its cost-effective technology.
The aerial confrontation served as a significant showcase for the Chinese weapons industry. “Until now, China had no opportunity to test its platforms in a combat situation,” stated Zhou Bo, a retired senior colonel in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, in an interview with the BBC.
A Beijing-based analyst remarked that the aerial confrontation results indicated “China possesses some systems that are unparalleled.” Shares of the Chinese Avic Chengdu Aircraft company, known for its production of fighter jets such as the J-10, increased significantly by up to 40% last week following reports regarding the fighter jet’s performance during the India-Pakistan conflict.
Contrary to some opinions, other experts argue that asserting the dominance of Chinese weapons systems is premature.
Professor Walter Ladwig of King’s College London stated that it remains unclear whether the Chinese jets successfully outmanoeuvred the Indian Air Force (IAF) aircraft, specifically the Rafale.
In conventional military strategy, the initial step involves neutralising the enemy’s air defences to establish air superiority prior to engaging ground targets. “It seems that the IAF’s objective was evidently to avoid provoking any military response from Pakistan,” he stated.
Mr. Ladwig expressed concerns that the Indian pilots received directives to proceed with their flights, even as the Pakistani air defence remained on heightened alert and their jets were already airborne. The Indian Air Force has not disclosed specifics regarding the mission or its air operations strategy.
Beijing has remained silent regarding reports suggesting that the J-10 has engaged and downed Indian fighter jets, including the Rafale. Unverified reports suggesting that the J-10 has successfully employed a Western weapon system have sparked celebrations and a sense of triumph across Chinese social media platforms.
Carlotta Rinaudo, a researcher specialising in China at the International Team for the Study of Security in Verona, noted that Chinese social media is inundated with nationalistic messages. However, drawing definitive conclusions from the available information remains challenging.
Currently, the way things are perceived holds significantly greater importance than the actual reality. “If we view it from that perspective, the primary beneficiary is undoubtedly China,” she stated.
China views Pakistan as a crucial partner in both strategic and economic realms. China is committing over $50 billion (£37 billion) to develop infrastructure in Pakistan, a key component of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
A weakened Pakistan does not align with China’s strategic interests.
According to Imtiaz Gul, a Pakistani security analyst, China played a pivotal role in the recent conflict between India and Pakistan. The Indian planners were caught off guard. “It is unlikely they anticipated the extent of collaboration in contemporary warfare between Pakistan and China,” he stated.
Analysts have closely scrutinised the performance of Chinese jets in actual combat scenarios, particularly in Western capitals, as this development is expected to significantly influence the global arms trade. The United States is the world’s largest arms exporter, with China ranking fourth in this global market.
China primarily exports weapons to developing nations, including Myanmar and Pakistan. In the past, Chinese weapon systems faced scrutiny due to concerns over their quality and various technical issues.
Sources indicate that the Burmese military has grounded multiple JF-17 fighter jets, which were jointly produced by China and Pakistan in 2022, citing technical malfunctions as the reason for this decision.
The Nigerian military has disclosed multiple technical issues concerning the Chinese-manufactured F-7 fighter jets.
It is essential to highlight that this incident marks yet another occasion in which India has experienced the loss of an aircraft to Pakistan.
In 2019, a brief air battle erupted between the two nations after Indian air strikes targeted suspected terrorist sites in Pakistan. During this confrontation, a Russian-made MiG-21 jet was downed within Pakistani territory, resulting in the capture of its pilot. A few days later, he was released.
India reported that the pilot ejected after successfully downing Pakistani fighter jets, which included a US-made F-16. Pakistan has categorically denied the claim.
In the wake of reports regarding the downing of Indian jets last week, experts such as Mr. Ladwig contend that India successfully struck a “impressive breadth of targets” within Pakistan during the early hours of May 10, a development that has largely escaped the attention of the international media.
The Indian military announced that it executed a coordinated strike, deploying missiles on 11 Pakistani air bases nationwide, with a focus on the strategic Nur Khan air base located near Rawalpindi, close to the Pakistani military headquarters. The unexpected nature of the target has caught Islamabad off guard.
The distance to one of the most remote targets reached Bholari, located 140 kilometres (86 miles) from Karachi, a city in the south.
According to Mr. Ladwig, the IAF has adhered to standard procedures during this operation, initially targeting Pakistani air defence and radar systems before shifting its focus to ground targets.
Indian jets deployed a variety of missiles, loitering munitions, and drones, even as Pakistani forces utilised the Chinese-supplied HQ 9 air defence system.
The attacks were notably precise and targeted in nature. The craters were strategically located in the centre of the runways, marking an optimal position for their presence. “I can’t say how long it would take the Pakistani Air Force to restore these facilities if the conflict were to extend,” Mr. Ladwig noted.
He stated that by declining to delve into the specifics of the mission briefing, India’s military “lost control of the narrative thread”.
In reaction to the Indian strikes, Pakistan reported that it conducted missile and air strikes targeting multiple Indian forward air bases. However, officials in Delhi asserted that the attacks resulted in no damage to equipment or personnel.
As the conflict escalated, the United States and its allies stepped in, exerting pressure on both nations to cease hostilities.
The entire episode serves as a crucial wake-up call for India.
While Beijing remains tight-lipped about the specifics of the recent India-Pakistan conflict, it is eager to demonstrate that its weapon systems are rapidly advancing to match those of the West.
Delhi acknowledges that the aircraft provided by China to Pakistan are among the earlier models. Beijing has officially incorporated the advanced J-20 stealth fighter jets, capable of evading radar detection, into its military arsenal.
India and China share a complex history marked by a persistent border dispute in the Himalayan region. This tension escalated into a brief but significant conflict in 1962, culminating in India’s defeat. In June 2020, a notable border clash occurred in Ladakh.
Analysts indicate that India recognises the urgent necessity of enhancing investments in its domestic defence manufacturing sector while expediting international procurement efforts.
Currently, China’s defence industry is in the spotlight, following assertions of success regarding one of its aircraft during the India-Pakistan conflict.
